Fidelity expects more sovereign nation states, or even a central bank, to acquire bitcoin this year. “There is very high stakes game theory at play here, whereby if bitcoin adoption increases, the countries that secure some bitcoin today will be better off competitively than their peers,” the firm explained.
Fidelity’s Crypto Predictions
Fidelity Digital Assets, a subsidiary of Fidelity Investments, published a report on crypto trends and their potential future impact earlier this month. Among the trends discussed in the report is the adoption of cryptocurrency by sovereign nations.
“This past year saw some major moves by world governments with regards to digital assets,” Fidelity described. The report discusses countries like China that have banned cryptocurrency and countries like El Salvador that took the opposite approach and made BTC legal tender.
“We think the two developments observed this year couldn’t be more opposed. Time will certainly tell which path is more successful,” the report authors opined. However, they noted:
An outright ban will be difficult to achieve at best, and if successful, will lead to a significant loss of wealth and opportunity.
The authors continued, “We also think there is very high stakes game theory at play here, whereby if bitcoin adoption increases, the countries that secure some bitcoin today will be better off competitively than their peers,” elaborating:
Therefore, even if other countries do not believe in the investment thesis or adoption of bitcoin, they will be forced to acquire some as a form of insurance.
Fidelity clarified, “In other words, a small cost can be paid today as a hedge compared to a potentially much larger cost years in the future.” The investment firm concluded:
We therefore wouldn’t be surprised to see other sovereign nation states acquire bitcoin in 2022 and perhaps even see a central bank make an acquisition.
El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, also predicted last week that two more sovereign nations will adopt bitcoin as legal tender this year. The CEO of Devere Group, Nigel Green, however, is more optimistic. He expects three more countries to adopt BTC as legal tender this year.